RBI Poised to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Rupee Slides and IT Earnings Loom

India’s central bank is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, October 7 at 10 a.m., with economists leaning toward its first rate hike in more than three years. The Monetary Policy Committee began its three-day meeting on October 5. It has held the repo rate at 5.25% for four consecutive reviews after cutting by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025.

Economists polled by Business Standard expect a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50%, which would be the first hike since February 2023. A PTI poll of 16 economists and bankers found most expecting a hike with a hawkish tone, though views are not unanimous, and at least one economist expects the RBI to hold. A hike would also mark a reversal of direction after the 2025 rate cuts, and the committee could shift its stance away from “neutral.”

Inflation and the currency are the pressure points. Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the RBI’s 4% target for the third consecutive month. The rupee is trading near 96 to the US dollar, with crude oil above $100 a barrel adding to the strain. India’s economy has stayed strong, with GDP growth of 7.8%, yet the Nifty fell in September, with much of the pressure coming from outside the country.

Attention then turns to corporate earnings. Tata Consultancy Services reports second-quarter results for fiscal 2027 on October 8. The IT sector has been under pressure, and TCS shares fell about 14.5% in September. Investors will watch its comments on order books and client budgets.

What to watch: The RBI’s rate decision and stance on Wednesday, any rupee-support measures, and TCS’s guidance on Thursday.

onsemi Switches to $5.7 Billion All-Cash Deal for Synaptics After Rival Bid Surfaces

Shares of Synaptics jumped about 14% after chipmaker onsemi (ON Semiconductor) agreed to buy it in an all-cash deal valued at about $5.7 billion. The revised agreement, announced late Thursday, October 1, pays $123 per share in cash and replaces the all-stock deal the companies signed on June 25, which was valued at about $7 billion.

The change followed competing interest. A filing shows Synaptics had received an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from another strategic party, which likely drove the renegotiation. Synaptics’ board unanimously concluded that the amended deal remains in shareholders’ interests.

Shares of Synaptics opened more than 14% higher on Friday, moving close to the cash offer. The stock had closed at $106.15 the previous day. onsemi shares rose about 6% in premarket trading from a prior close of $80.08, with investors welcoming that the cash structure avoids issuing new shares that would have diluted existing holders.

Under the original agreement, Synaptics holders were to receive 1.350 onsemi shares for each share they own. The new deal will be funded with cash on hand and about $2.45 billion in committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley. onsemi expects the acquisition to add to its non-GAAP earnings per share immediately, and has identified $200 million of annual run-rate synergies.

The deal still needs approval from Synaptics shareholders and regulators, with completion expected by mid-2027. It came amid a broader rally in semiconductor stocks.

Nike Shares Sink to 2013 Lows as China Slump Deepens and Restructuring Widens

Nike shares tumbled after the sportswear giant forecast a much steeper drop in annual revenue than analysts expected, announced more job cuts and consolidated its global business divisions. The stock fell 8.5% in extended trading after the Thursday report. It then fell about 9% in premarket trading the next day to roughly $32, its lowest level since 2013, and is down about 45% this year.

Nike expects revenue to decline by a high single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027, well below the roughly 2% decline analysts had forecast. In the quarter ended August 31, revenue fell about 4% to $11.21 billion, missing the $11.32 billion estimate.

China is at the center of the problem. Sales in Greater China plunged 26% on a constant-currency basis, the ninth consecutive quarter of decline. The region accounts for about 15% of Nike’s annual revenue and is its third-largest market. One analyst described the problem as the product rather than the sales channel, while rivals such as On and Hoka have been capturing growth.

CEO Elliott Hill is deepening the restructuring. Nike is cutting its geographic divisions from four to three: Americas, Asia Pacific and Greater China, and Europe, the Middle East and Africa. It has not said how many roles will go, and employees will begin to be notified in 2027. The plan targets about $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031, against roughly $1 billion in pretax restructuring charges. Hill warned that the clean-up will take multiple seasons, and the company will provide updated targets through the year starting in November.

What to watch: Nike’s updated targets in November, any China recovery signs, and whether competitors keep taking market share.