RBI Poised to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Rupee Slides and IT Earnings Loom

India’s central bank is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, October 7 at 10 a.m., with economists leaning toward its first rate hike in more than three years. The Monetary Policy Committee began its three-day meeting on October 5. It has held the repo rate at 5.25% for four consecutive reviews after cutting by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025.

Economists polled by Business Standard expect a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50%, which would be the first hike since February 2023. A PTI poll of 16 economists and bankers found most expecting a hike with a hawkish tone, though views are not unanimous, and at least one economist expects the RBI to hold. A hike would also mark a reversal of direction after the 2025 rate cuts, and the committee could shift its stance away from “neutral.”

Inflation and the currency are the pressure points. Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the RBI’s 4% target for the third consecutive month. The rupee is trading near 96 to the US dollar, with crude oil above $100 a barrel adding to the strain. India’s economy has stayed strong, with GDP growth of 7.8%, yet the Nifty fell in September, with much of the pressure coming from outside the country.

Attention then turns to corporate earnings. Tata Consultancy Services reports second-quarter results for fiscal 2027 on October 8. The IT sector has been under pressure, and TCS shares fell about 14.5% in September. Investors will watch its comments on order books and client budgets.

What to watch: The RBI’s rate decision and stance on Wednesday, any rupee-support measures, and TCS’s guidance on Thursday.

Detroit Three Slip to Record-Low US Market Share as Gas Prices Drive Buyers to Hybrids

GM, Ford and Stellantis are heading for their weakest US showing on record. Cox Automotive estimates their combined third-quarter market share at around 36%, an all-time low, while hybrid-heavy Asian brands including Toyota and Honda are expected to account for more than half of new vehicle sales.

The driver is fuel costs. The Iran war has pushed US gasoline to a national average of $4.43 a gallon in September, according to AAA, up from $3.20 a year earlier, and buyers are turning to hybrids and more efficient models.

Toyota is the clearest winner. Its electrified sales climbed 28.5% to 363,367 units, or 57.4% of its US sales, and its Corolla hybrid jumped nearly 36%. GM kept the top US sales spot, but its lead over Toyota shrank to 37,751 vehicles, and Cox has said Toyota could overtake GM in the coming years if the trend continues. GM’s quarterly sales fell 5.5% to 670,974 units. Honda posted a record hybrid quarter of more than 106,000 units, with sales up 9.3%. Stellantis sales were roughly flat at 324,277.

Ford is under particular pressure. Cox expects its sales to fall 8.8% through the first three quarters of the year, with its market share dropping nearly a full point to 12.5%. Cox also forecast that Hyundai Motor Group would outsell Ford for the first time, 511,421 vehicles to 504,172, though Ford argues that Hyundai and Kia are separate companies and that it outsold the two combined year to date.

Overall US sales for the quarter are estimated at about 4.1 million, down about 1% from a year earlier. The average new-vehicle transaction price rose 1.9% to $50,089 in August.

What to watch: Ford’s reported third-quarter sales, gasoline prices, and whether Detroit’s automakers shift more of their production toward hybrids.

onsemi Switches to $5.7 Billion All-Cash Deal for Synaptics After Rival Bid Surfaces

Shares of Synaptics jumped about 14% after chipmaker onsemi (ON Semiconductor) agreed to buy it in an all-cash deal valued at about $5.7 billion. The revised agreement, announced late Thursday, October 1, pays $123 per share in cash and replaces the all-stock deal the companies signed on June 25, which was valued at about $7 billion.

The change followed competing interest. A filing shows Synaptics had received an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from another strategic party, which likely drove the renegotiation. Synaptics’ board unanimously concluded that the amended deal remains in shareholders’ interests.

Shares of Synaptics opened more than 14% higher on Friday, moving close to the cash offer. The stock had closed at $106.15 the previous day. onsemi shares rose about 6% in premarket trading from a prior close of $80.08, with investors welcoming that the cash structure avoids issuing new shares that would have diluted existing holders.

Under the original agreement, Synaptics holders were to receive 1.350 onsemi shares for each share they own. The new deal will be funded with cash on hand and about $2.45 billion in committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley. onsemi expects the acquisition to add to its non-GAAP earnings per share immediately, and has identified $200 million of annual run-rate synergies.

The deal still needs approval from Synaptics shareholders and regulators, with completion expected by mid-2027. It came amid a broader rally in semiconductor stocks.